60-Minute Project Pre-Mortem & Kill-Criteria Canvas
1. Prospective Hindsight Prompt (Klein 2007)“Imagine it is 6 months from today and this project failed completely. Write 3 reasons why silently (5 min).”
2. Reference-Class Timeline (Flyvbjerg 2006)Inside-View Estimate: ____ wks · Buffer: ☐ +15% ☐ +35% ☐ +60% → Adjusted Launch: ____ wks
3. Highest Risk Exposure (Max P×I Score)Max Score: ____ / 25 · ☐ Green / Watch (≤8) ☐ Amber (9–12) ☐ Red Blocker (≥15)
| Failure Mode (“Why did it fail?”) | Prob (1–5) | Impact (1–5) | P×I (1–25) | Preventative Action (Before Launch) | Early-Warning Tripwire & @DRI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1. Core API / vendor integration latency or schema mismatch | 4 | 4 | 16 | Run 48-hour production-load spike in Week 1 before UI work | p95 > 150 ms in staging · @____ |
| 2. Scope creep from unbudgeted stakeholder feature requests | 4 | 3 | 12 | Freeze v1 PRD scope; move all new asks to Phase 2 backlog | >2 unplanned stories added · @____ |
| 3. Single-point-of-failure engineer / key reviewer bottleneck | 3 | 4 | 12 | Pair-document critical path & assign secondary code reviewer | PR review wait > 24 h · @____ |
| 4. Low Day-7 user activation due to onboarding friction | 3 | 3 | 9 | Usability-test clickable prototype with 5 target users in Week 2 | Activation < 25% in beta · @____ |
| 5. Legal / security / compliance sign-off delayed at launch | 2 | 4 | 8 | Submit DPA & threat model in Week 2 instead of launch week | Review open at T−14 days · @____ |
| 6. __________________________________________________ | ___ | ___ | ___ | @____ | |
| 7. __________________________________________________ | ___ | ___ | ___ | @____ |
4. Midpoint Kill / Descope Tripwire (Date: ______________)If ____________________________________ is below ___________ by Midpoint, we immediately cut Phase 2 scope or pause build.
5. Post-Launch Rollback / Pivot Criterion (Date: ______________)If ____________________________________ is below ___________ at Day 30, we execute rollback / pivot plan signed by @__________.